‘Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response’ (In person)

Date: Thursday 10 April 2025, 3.00PM - 5.00PM
Location: Hallam Conference Centre, 44 Hallam St, London W1W 6JJ
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This paper discusses some statistical aspects of the U.K. Covid-19 pandemic response, focusing particularly on cases where we believe that a statistically questionable approach or presentation has had a substantial impact on public perception, or government policy, or both. We discuss the presentation of statistics relating to Covid risk, and the risk of the response measures, arguing that biases tended to operate in opposite directions, overplaying Covid risk and underplaying the response risks. We also discuss some issues around presentation of life loss data, excess deaths and the use of case data. The consequences of neglect of most individual variability from epidemic models, alongside the consequences of some other statistically important omissions are also covered. Finally the evidence for full stay at home lockdowns having been necessary to reverse waves of infection is examined, with new analyses provided for a number of European countries.

Members, non-Members, all welcome.

Welcome reception from 2:30pm (UK time)
Discussion Meeting 3pm to 5pm (UK time)
Post-meeting reception 5pm to 6pm (UK time)
 
 
Simon N. Wood, School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, UK

Ernst C. Wit, Institute of Computing, Università della Svizzera Italiana, Lugano, Switzerland

Paul M. McKeigue, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, U.K 

Danshu Hu, Beth Flood, Lauren Corcoran and Thea Abou Jawad, School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, UK
 
Contact Judith Shorten
 
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