In the 2020 US Presidential Election the opinion polls again under-estimated support for Donald Trump and over-estimated support for the Democratic challenger.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) commissioned an expert Task Force to look into possible sources of error, and their report was published earlier this year.
In this session, members of the Task Force, and other polling experts, will explain what has been learnt about possible sources of error
There will be four presentations:
Setting the scene - are polls getting better or worse? (Christopher Wliezen)
The AAPOR Task Force report: key findings (Joshua Clinton)
How did the different modes of data collection differ? (Claire Durand)
Using state level data to help understand errors (Josh Pasek)
Christopher Wliezen, University of Texas at Austin
Joshua Clinton, Vanderbilt University and Chair of AAPOR Task Force
Claire Durand, University of Montreal
Josh Pasek, University of Michigan