We’re aware of concerns raised by some RSS members and the wider statistical community around the statistical aspects of the Lucy Letby case. Our 2022 report highlighted the challenges of interpreting statistical evidence in medical murder cases, and it proposed several recommendations for best practice. We will be convening a meeting to explore how best these recommendations can be put into practice.
Relatedly, we are pleased that the Thirlwall Inquiry, in line with our recommendations, intends to look at the appropriate use of hospital data in neonatal settings.
Statistical monitoring systems are well established to provide alerts to unusual patterns of events. If implemented and interpreted properly, they facilitate early detection of anomalies and can inform subsequent investigations including in cases of suspected medical murder.
This statement was corrected on 26 July to clarify that it is the questions that the Thirlwall Inquiry intends to look at, arising out of the terms of reference, rather than the terms of reference themselves, that include the role of data. Specifically, Q13: ‘Should concerns, including about hospital or clinical data, have been raised earlier than they were? When? What should have been done then?’ Additionally, it removes the mention that the Inquiry intends to look at the use of statistical evidence in trials, as previously incorrectly stated and removes any implication that the Inquiry is looking at these issues as a result of our engagement with them.
Read our 2022 report on statistical issues in the investigation of suspected medical misconduct
Read our letters to the Thirlwall Inquiry:
29 September 2023
10 November 2023