Predictions, role of interventions and the crisis of virus in India

Predictions, role of interventions and the crisis of virus in India

Date: Thursday 19 May 2022, 2.00PM
Location: Online
Online via Zoom
RSS Event

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India, the world's largest democracy, had three very different surges of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, 2021 and 2022 corresponding to the transmission of the ancestral strain, the rise of the Delta variant and the final Omicron wave. 

The human behavior and public health intervention strategies were also very different during these three waves.

In this presentation, we provide a brief chronicle of the modeling experience of our study team over the last two years,  looking at the data from India, leading to the development of a tiered data-driven framework for public health interventions towards pandemic resilience.

Through mathematical modeling we study the timing and duration of public health interventions with intervention effects estimated from actual data. We illustrate that early and sustained interventions can help us avoid harsh lockdowns and reduce COVID mortality drastically.

We also quantify the estimated number of missing COVID-deaths in India which are orders of magnitude larger than reported COVID-deaths. This is joint work with many, with all supporting research materials and products available at

The speakers will be followed by a Q&A and closing remarks

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Opening remarks: Professor Sylvia Richardson

Presentation by: Professor Bhramar Mukherjee

Organisers: The Turing/RSS & UKHSA Lab partnership