Special topic meeting on R/local R/transmission of Covid-19

Throughout the current epidemic there has been considerable focus on, and some controversy around, the use of R as a headline summary of the state of the epidemic.

We are holding an online Special Topic Meeting on Wednesday 9 June (3-5pm) and Friday 11 June (11am-12.30pm and 2-4pm) to discuss statistical issues around this general topic. This meeting has been organised by Prof Peter Diggle and Prof Sylvia Richardson.

In the tradition of RSS Discussion Meetings, the programme will consist of oral presentations based on written papers that will be made available beforehand, followed by open discussion contributions and responses from the authors, all of which will then be published as a permanent record.

Download the programme (PDF).

You can register separately for the sessions using the links below

Register for Wednesday 9 June (3-5pm) 

Register for Friday 11 June (11am-12.30pm)

Register for Friday 11 June (2-4pm) 

In the limited time available for the open discussion, colleagues who have given prior notice of their wish to speak will be given priority. Potential contributors should contact Jonathan Everett (j.everett@rss.org.uk) before 9th June, indicating at which session they wish to speak.

Session 1 Wednesday 9th June 15.00-17.00      
15.00. Kris V. Parag, Robin N. Thompson, Christl A. Donnelly 
Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? 
Download paper (PDF)

15.15. Nicholas Jewell and Joe Lewnard 
On the use of the reproduction number for SARS-CoV-2: Estimation, misinterpretations, and relationships with other ecological measures 
Download paper (PDF)

15.30. Luc E. Coffeng, Sake J. de Vlas
Predicting epidemics and the impact of interventions in heterogeneous settings: standard SEIR models are too pessimistic  
Download paper (PDF)

15.45 Invited discussants:  Justin Lessler, Phil O’Neil, John Kingman
16.15 Open discussion
Session 2 Friday 11 June 11.00-12.30   
11.00. Yee Whye Teh, Avishkar Bhoopchand, Peter Diggle, Bryn Elesedy, Bobby He,
Michael Hutchinson, Ulrich Paquet, Jonathan Read, Nenad Tomasev, Sheheryar Zaidi

Efficient Bayesian Inference of Instantaneous Reproduction Numbers at Fine Spatial Scales, with an Application to Mapping and Nowcasting the Covid-19 Epidemic in British Local Authorities  
Download paper (PDF)

11.15. Swapnil Mishra, Jamie Scott, Daniel J. Laydon​, Harrison Zhu, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy 
A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom 
Download paper (PDF)

11.30. Invited discussants: Gavin Gibson, Guy Nason
11.50. Open discussion
Session 3  Friday 11 June 14.00-16.00 
14.00. Lorenzo Pellis, Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, JUNIPER consortium, Daniela De Angelis
Estimation of the effective reproduction number in real-time: conceptual and statistical challenges 
Download paper (PDF)

14.15. Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Leonhard Held on behalf of the SUSPend modelling
Consortium Assessing the effect of school closures on the spread of COVID-19 in Zurich 
Download paper (PDF) 
Download Supporting information (PDF)

14.30. Invited discussants: Adam Kucharski, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
14.50. Open discussion

Load more