‘Randomisation in Clinical Trials: Is a Pragmatic Compromise between Randomisation- and Model-Based Inference Possible?’ by Stephen Senn (In person)

Date: Wednesday 01 July 2026, 3.00PM - 5.00PM
Location: Broadway House, Tothill St, Westminster, London SW1H 9NQ
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The defenders of randomisation point to the long run properties that randomisation underwrites. The critics argue that a long-run average is not relevant to the case in hand. Here I argue that both are right in a sense. Randomisation permits one to use the distribution in probability of the effects of covariates one has not seen but this distribution is not relevant for those one has. However, conditional inferences are embedded within marginal ones. Thus, although the latter should not be substituted for the former, the former are unlikely to be right if the latter are wrong. Randomisation is valuable for what we don’t see and don’t know. It should not be used as an excuse for ignoring what we do. I shall claim that randomisation does not solve all problems but doing better is harder than many suppose.

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This is a Discussion Meeting (UK time). Post-meeting reception 5pm to 6pm.

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Stephen Senn, Consultant Statistician University of Sheffield, Medical University of Vienna and University of St. Andrews
 
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