Join us for a timely discussion on the performance of opinion polls in the 2024 UK General Election. This event, hosted by the Social Statistics committee, brings together some of the leading voices in polling and public opinion research to reflect on the varied results and methodological challenges that characterised this year’s election predictions.
Along with a plethora of MRP models, this election saw a wide array of polling results, with traditional vote intention polls tending to overestimating Labour’s eventual share. These mixed outcomes highlight ongoing questions about the accuracy, reliability, and future direction of opinion polling in the UK. Against the backdrop of other mixed polling performances in recent history, this event will examine the evolving role of polling, its challenges, and the lessons we can draw to refine predictions and better capture public opinion in future elections.
With special guest speakers Professor John Curtice, Patrick English from YouGov, and Luke Tryl from Moreincommon, this session will delve into:
- The performance of various polling methodologies, including the successes of MRP VI polls.
- The complexities and potential biases in estimating party support, especially for traditionally underrepresented parties.
- The broader implications of polling accuracy for public trust and the industry’s role in modern elections.
This event will appeal to pollsters, statisticians, social scientists, and anyone interested in the future of opinion polling and its place in shaping democratic dialogue.
Professor John Curtice
Professor Sir John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow, Scotland, and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and the ESRC’s ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’ initiative. A former President of the British Polling Council, he is also an Honorary Fellow of the Royal Statistical and Market Research Societies and has written extensively about polling and voting behaviour.
Patrick English (YouGov)
Patrick is Director of Political Analytics and YouGov's spokesman on political research. Patrick designed and delivered YouGov's industry-leading MRP models for both the 2023 Spanish and 2024 British general elections. He is responsible for election modelling and forecasting across YouGov's European markets, and leads on research and development on experimental survey designs, data analytics, artificial intelligence, segmentation models, and MRP products. His client work at YouGov focuses on producing in-depth knowledge and cutting-edge analytics, helping political parties, think tanks, pressure groups, and third sector and academic clients better understand and change their world in data. He holds a Doctorate from the University of Manchester and remains active in contributing to academic research and publications.
Lyke Tryl (Moreincommon)
As UK Director, Luke leads the organisation’s ground-breaking UK public opinion and thought leadership work. Luke has worked to shine a light on what the public thinks about topics as diverse as immigration, climate change, gender identity and mental health. With a focus on the nuances and complexity of public opinion, he has helped policymakers, business and civil society navigate issues often regarded as tricky and divisive.
Since starting work at More in Common Luke has overseen the development of More in Common’s in-house UK research agency and directs their regular programme of polling and focus groups. He is a regular commentator on UK public opinion across both print and broadcast media and has appeared on Radio 4’s Today Programme, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Times Radio and Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge. He has also written for various publications including the Times, Telegraph, Guardian, New Statesman and the Spectator. Before joining More in Common, Luke's career spanned politics, public opinion, and government. He served as a Special Advisor to Nicky Morgan during the Cameron administration and as Director of Strategy at the education inspectorate Ofsted.
Fellows: Free
Non-Fellows: £15