Our Climate Change Task Force (CCTF) has released two new explainers this week, continuing a series of publications aimed at explaining the statistical aspects of climate science.
The first explainer, ‘
How local warming is related to global warming – pattern scaling,’ explores how global temperature increases are experienced differently across the world. It introduces the concept of pattern scaling, which shows that while global warming is usually reported as an average for the planet, local warming varies markedly depending on geography. The explainer illustrates how regions such as the Arctic, inland cities and higher latitudes are warming faster than the global average in a predictable manner, and how this knowledge can be used to project future temperature changes in specific locations.
The second explainer, ‘
Climate change attribution of extreme events and trends,’ delves into the science of determining how human activities influence extreme weather events and long-term climate trends. It explains how statistical and climate models are used to assess the likelihood that events such as heatwaves or floods have been intensified by human-induced climate change. Using real examples like the rising frequency of extreme temperatures at Heathrow Airport, the explainer demonstrates how attribution science helps quantify the impact of global warming on local weather extremes.
Both explainers are now available on the
CCTF webpages and offer valuable insights for the public, as well as policymakers and researchers. You can also explore the full series to better understand the statistical foundations of climate science and the implications for our changing world.