In his Presidential Address Statistics in Times of Crisis Professor Sir John Aston will examines how modern crises—pandemics, environmental shocks, security threats, and rapid technological change—place unprecedented pressure on statistical reasoning and on the statisticians who must deliver it. John will emphasise that statistics plays a crucial role in times of crisis, even if behind the scenes, and highlight how uncertainty, scrutiny, and urgency reshape analytical practice.

Central to the discussion is the RSS's Statistics Under Pressure project, which shows that crisis‑era statistical work is defined less by technical novelty than by judgement: deciding what is “good enough,” balancing timeliness against completeness, and communicating uncertainty without undermining trust. The address emphasises the Five Rules of Evidence Communication—inform, don’t persuade; offer balance; disclose uncertainties; state evidence quality; and pre‑bunk misinformation—as essential tools for maintaining integrity under pressure.

John will also examine the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine as an example of statistical communication that required clarity, transparency, and scenario‑based framing. And will further argues that the rise of AI represents a new long‑term “pressure” on statistics, calling for statisticians to shape how uncertainty is represented in increasingly complex models which have statistical methodology at their very heart. Ultimately, the address urges statisticians to remain “in the room,” bringing rigour, transparency, and humility to decisions that carry real‑world consequences.
 

rssevents@rss.org.uk