Prof Hein Putter from Dept of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, will speak about the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models and the problem of the cumulative total failure probability exceeding 1.
This is joint work that Hein has conducted in collaboration with Peter Austin and Ewout Steyerberg.
This hybrid meeting will be held in Room 3:052 Polwarth Building, Foresterhill, University of Aberdeen, and online over Teams.
Speaker: Prof Hein Putter from Dept of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center
Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models and the problem of cumulative total failure probability exceeding 1 (Joint work with Peter Austin and Ewout Steyerberg)
Abstract: The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model has become the default method to estimate the incidence of outcomes over time in the presence of competing risks. This model is attractive because it directly relates covariates to the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of the event of interest. An alternative is to combine the different cause-specific hazard functions to obtain the different CIFs. A limitation of the subdistribution hazard approach is that the sum of the cause-specific CIFs can exceed 1 (100%) for some covariate patterns. We provide empirical evidence that this problem is more common than might be imagined. We also provide a proof that the sum of predictions exceeds 1 is a fundamental problem with the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. We conclude that care should be taken when using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model in situations with wide risk distributions or a high cumulative incidence, and if one is interested in the risk of failure from each of the different event types.
Based on:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/sim.9023; see also
https://github.com/survival-lumc/FG-TotalFailureProbability
Prof Hein Putter from Dept of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center