Last year the RSS Statistics in Sport Section
ran a successful prediction competition for the Euros 2020. Now, with Wimbledon starting on 27th June, it's the turn of tennis! Is it Murray mound or Raducanu rise? In the women's competition, world number 1 Iga Swiatek is the bookie's favourite while many British fans will be getting behind 19 year old US Open champion Emma Raducanu. In the men's, Djokovic has left his Covid-19 controversy from the Australian Open behind him and will be favourite to win. Andy Murray, winner in 2013 and 2016 will be hoping to relive past glories.
If you would like to try your hand at predicting the match outcomes in Wimbledon, the rules of the competition are as follows:
- You must use publicly available data
- Predictions must be made for all possible match ups between top 100 male and female players in the singles events, in the form of probabilities for each player
- Code and data must be supplied on submission and results need to be reproducible by the judging panel.
You can use whatever methods you want, but your goal should be to minimise the log-score for all predictions for the matches that actually take place. You can participate as an individual or as part of a team – whatever works for you. More information on the rules, log-score metric, submission template and how to get involved can be found at https://github.com/jam13g/rss-Wimbledon-2022-prediction-competition/blob/master/README.md
As with any competition, there are prizes and we will have first and second place based on the lowest log-score in addition to a prize for the best method as determined by the judging panel. All winners will be invited to present their work at this year's RSS Conference, with reasonable expenses covered and appropriately tacky trophies for all winners!
Submissions must be made before the matches begin at 11am BST on 27th June 2022. Good luck!