The Northern Ireland local group of the RSS held an online meeting using MS Teams on Wednesday 23 March 2022 at 2pm (GMT).
The speaker was Professor Sylvia Richardson, MRC Biostatistics Unit (BSU), Cambridge University and President of the Royal Statistical Society.
Professor Richardson opened by saying that the Covid-19 pandemic had presented Society with many dierent challenges and she would look back at how the Statistical Community in the UK had responded to these and what lessons, if any, could be learned about how to deal with future pandemics.
She noted that many statistical groups had contributed on a variety of fronts: estimation of the number of infections (among symptomatic patients), number infected amongst the population, subsequent hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths, modelling these numbers, and modelling the eects various intervention strategies (via simulation), evaluating the performance of Covid-19 tests, and testing strategies (for example in schools), trial design to evaluate the efficacy of treatments (e.g., the RECOVERY Trial) and vaccine types and dosing regimens (e.g,. Oxford Vaccine Trial).
The BSU's work had concentrated, mainly, but not exclusively, on eliminating the bias which resulted as a consequence of dealing with data on patients with symptoms. It also had produced a substantial body of work on evaluating testing regimens in schools. Professor Richardson explained the usefulness of the ONS's weekly population-based survey of Covid-19 infections. Another general problem for study design during the pandemic was the rapidity of change in government guidelines. Such changes could compromise the basic assumptions underpinning study design thereby creating problems for modelling when, for example, unanticipated behavioural feed-back loops are created.
Professor Richardson turned to the work of the RSS during the pandemic. In April 2020, the RSS set up a Covid-19 Task Force co-chaired the president and past president David Spiegelhalter and supported by a steering group. Its aim is to ensure that the RSS can contribute its collective expertise to UK national and devolved governments and public bodies, regarding statistical issues during the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to technical statistical issues, Sylvia emphasised the work on public understanding of statistical issues linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and pointed to the media appearances of David Spiegelhalter and publication of his recent book. The Society had also published a policy statement entitled: Ten Lessons for Government... based on the Task Force's first year's experience.
The president said that the next step for the Society was to prepare for future crises by coordinating policy responses to Covid-related inquiries or calls for evidence and, in particular, by influencing the design of future data collection arrangements in the UK. She went on to describe the notion of having a general framework for managing pandemics embodying ideas on interoperability.
This wide-ranging and insightful talk was received with acclaim. The pandemic had absorbed the whole hour and Data Science, it was agreed, would have to be discussed on another occasion. The audience numbering c40 (online) showed their appreciation in the usual way.
The President dealt with a number of questions:
She was asked whether there was a settled view on how best to model the course of the pandemic. She thought not. There had been no prior consensus - time had been too short - and a variety of existing models had been pressed into service in the first year. The dynamics of changing guidelines made model evaluation difficult.
She was asked if the statistical advice had fully penetrated the SAGE organisation and influenced government policy. Here the president was sceptical. There was more work to done on this front as the policy statement of March 2021 suggested.
One participant enquired whether the RSS was aware of the Westminster Hall debate held on Forecasting and Modelling Covid-19 on January, 18th. This was, in places highly critical of modelling practice during the pandemic. The president said that she had not seen this material.
Another asked if there was an anti-dote to the 'anti-vaxxers' who clearly have had an adverse influence on the vaccination programme in several jurisdictions. The president agreed that they had created serious problems in some communities and that the way to combat this was through education and the dissemination of the correct statistical information with clear guidance on the relative risks.
A final question, unrelated to the pandemic, but related to the previous question, dealt with the need to disseminate unbiased information to the General Public about Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol. The president's advice was unequivocal.
The chair congratulated the President on a very stimulating talk and concluded the meeting by thanking everyone for their attendance and support.
Written by Gilbert MacKenzie.